MODELING SHIFTING GEOGRAPHICAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF LEAST CONCERN ASIAN BRACKISH FROG FEJERVARYA CANCRIVORA (GRAVENHORST, 1829) (ANURA: DICROGLOSSIDAE) IN WEST JAVA, INDONESIA RELATED TO CMIP 5 RCP 8.5 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO

Andri Wibowo, Adi Basukriadi, Erwin Nurdin, Vita Meylani, Nana Suryana Nasution
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Abstract

Amphibians and their geographical distribution are threatened by climate change, including species
in West Java, Indonesia. It is estimated that 300 amphibian species are threatened, including the family
Dicroglossidae. At the same time, information on how climate change impacts amphibian species in
Indonesia is very limited. This study aims to assess and model the suitable habitat for the least concern
Asian brackish frog, Fejervarya cancrivora (Gravenhorst, 1829), under the CMIP 5 RCP 8.5 future
climate change scenario by 2070, analyzed using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). The models developed
with MaxEnt showed good predictivity, with an AUC value of 0.701. The models that inform the
precipitation of the wettest month, isothermality, and mean diurnal range variables have significant
contributions to make in shaping F. cancrivora geographical distributions. The models confirm that F.
cancrivora had shifted its geographical distribution and had gained and lost habitats under a future climate
change scenario by 2070. F. cancrivora will lose 4,428 km2 of its current habitat and will gain 2,673
km2 of new habitat. In total, climate change will cause F. cancrivora to lose its habitat by 1,755 km2.

Keywords

amphibian, climate change, MaxEnt, precipitation, RCP

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References

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